Emerging market telcos squeezed by diesel crisis

Details: Manny Pham; Category: Operators; 20 May 2026; 358 views

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz caused by the US and Israel’s war with Iran is placing fresh pressure on emerging market telecom operators, many of which remain heavily reliant on diesel generators to keep their networks running.

With around 20% of the world’s oil supply disrupted and crude prices climbing above US$120 per barrel for the first time since 2022, operators across Africa, the Middle East and Asia are being hit by soaring energy costs at a time when demand for connectivity continues to rise. Markets including Pakistan, the Philippines and parts of Sub-Saharan Africa are among the hardest hit due to their dependence on imported fuel and unreliable national electricity grids.

Industry analysts warn the crisis could accelerate the telecom sector’s shift towards renewable energy and alternative network back-up solutions such as satellite connectivity, as diesel becomes increasingly expensive and operationally unsustainable.

Emerging markets bear the brunt

Crude oil prices rose above US$120 per barrel at the end of April, their highest level since 2022. Emerging markets have been hit hardest, particularly countries that have failed to diversify their energy supply chains. The Philippines is currently facing a major crisis, with 98% of its oil imports sourced from the Middle East. Pakistan has also seen supplies of liquefied natural gas disrupted, making daily life increasingly difficult for households and businesses alike.

For the telecoms sector, it is unsurprisingly operators in emerging markets that are bearing the brunt of the energy shock. Many rely heavily on diesel generators to power base stations and telecom towers, particularly in remote areas with little or no access to national electricity grids. As a result, the challenge of connecting underserved communities is becoming even steeper.

According to environmental certification organisation Gold Standard, developing countries host an estimated 350GW to 500GW of diesel generator capacity spread across 20 million to 30 million sites, in many cases exceeding the capacity of national grids themselves. Even before the latest conflict, diesel power was already costly, averaging around US$0.30 per kilowatt-hour and significantly more in remote regions where the unconnected often live. Gold Standard estimates annual spending on generator fuel reaches between US$30 billion and US$50 billion.

Diesel dependence driving operational pressure

CrossBoundary Energy estimates that around 70% of Africa’s half a million telecom towers rely on diesel generators, accounting for between 30% and 60% of tower operating expenditure. Fuel costs for operators across parts of Africa have surged by 40% to 60% over the past two years, with the Strait of Hormuz disruption adding further pressure.

Nigeria has been highlighted as one of the markets facing the most acute energy challenges, with grid availability in some regions falling as low as 40% to 50%. In rural areas of the Democratic Republic of Congo, telecom infrastructure is almost entirely dependent on diesel due to the absence of national grid access. Across Sub-Saharan Africa, between 60% and 80% of telecom towers experience daily grid outages lasting between eight and 12 hours.

The demand for energy is only expected to rise further as operators continue expanding 4G coverage and rolling out 5G networks across emerging markets.

Renewable energy gains momentum

According to MTN Consulting, renewable energy accounted for just 23% of global telecom energy consumption in 2024, up from 10% in 2019. However, much of that progress has been driven by operators in Europe rather than developing regions.

Operators including Turkcell, Tele2, Telia, Deutsche Telekom, KPN, Swisscom, A1 Telekom Austria, Telefonica, Telecom Italia and Liberty Global were highlighted by MTN Consulting as benefiting from long-term “foresight” as competitors elsewhere face increasingly volatile energy costs.

Operators forced to rethink network resilience

Ismail Patel, Senior Analyst for Enterprise Technology and Services at GlobalData, said energy concerns are now becoming inseparable from telecom strategy in emerging markets.

“Energy policy is increasingly being integrated into telecoms policy,” Patel said. “Diesel is used in markets where there are unreliable electricity grids or frequent loadshedding. Thus far, diesel has been a core part of the business model, not just as a back-up for powering towers. The whole ecosystem of diesel - which involves manually delivering fuel to towers and manpower - is also part of the model.”

Patel warned that rising diesel costs caused by geopolitical instability will ultimately push up the price of connectivity or squeeze already-thin operator margins in highly price-sensitive markets.

“Operators will be forced to re-evaluate the most optimal back-up power mechanisms for their networks, including clean energy upgrades,” he said. “This includes solar panels, which are susceptible to theft but do not have the immediate resale value of diesel, which is even more prone to unauthorised misappropriation.”

He added that satellite connectivity could emerge as a medium-term alternative for network resilience, particularly as direct-to-device (D2D) satellite services mature.

“Within this context, satellite as a back-up coverage mechanism might feature in the medium term, with both US and Chinese LEO satellite operators in a prime position to offer back-up connectivity to devices in place of towers,” Patel said. “As the digital divide decreases and more underserved communities become dependent on connectivity, it will become far less economical for operators and governments to tolerate outages.”

Rather than being driven primarily by sustainability goals, Patel argued the shift towards renewable and satellite-powered infrastructure may ultimately become an economic necessity.

“Operators will start to look at greener options and satellite not because they are green or necessarily offer better coverage, but because they are becoming more cost-effective compared to diesel,” he said.

Patel identified Pakistan, Bangladesh, much of Sub-Saharan Africa including Nigeria and South Africa, Lebanon, and rural regions of India, Indonesia and the Philippines as among the markets most exposed to the crisis.

Sustainability becomes a business imperative

As geopolitical tensions continue to expose the fragility of global energy supply chains, telecom operators in emerging markets are increasingly finding themselves on the front line of the crisis. Networks that once relied on diesel as a dependable fallback are now facing spiralling fuel costs, operational uncertainty and growing pressure to maintain uptime for communities that are becoming ever more digitally dependent.

While the transition to renewable energy and alternative technologies such as satellite connectivity will require significant investment and infrastructure upgrades, the current crisis has highlighted that sustainability is no longer simply an environmental ambition for telecom operators - it is rapidly becoming a business imperative. For many operators in emerging markets, reducing dependence on diesel may ultimately prove to be the key not only to lowering costs, but to ensuring long-term network resilience and keeping millions connected during future global shocks.