Is there anything new in store for 2010?

Thursday, 31 December 2009 00:00

At the end of any normal year, websites are full of predictions by consultancies as to which technologies will blossom in the following twelve months or which regions and countries will rise or fall. Where 2010 is concerned, the editor’s emails have not over-flowed with predictions; the last few months have been quiet. Any forecasts he has received (US Telecom Daily and Strand Consult) have concentrated on global trends, with little specialisation of any sort.

Some of the established giants continue to win contracts in the new markets. Nokia Siemens Networks does continue to notch up commercial success - and in the present economic conditions, long may the company continue to do so. The contracts may not be global or region-wide in their extent but they reflect the skills of the successful companies in winning the after-care and maintenance aspects of contracts.

Even in an industry top-heavy with technological expertise, the news seems thin on the ground. The rival WiMAX and LTE technologies will continue to go their own ways, eventually ending up with one technology dominant. Although WiMAX has had a head start, LTE has looked back to 3G, observed how the latter inched slowly and falteringly towards fully-functioning 3G status,and has moved through 3.5G on its way to commencing full commercial operations. Simplistic it may sound, but it is not called long-term evolution for nothing.

The only set of predictions Developing Telecoms has received with any solid emerging-market content is that from Strand Consult. LTE features heavily along with a prediction that the infrastructure market will become tougher and that Chinese methods of working will become more frequent.

For Strand Consult there will be increased pressure on the infrastructure providers in 2010 and it will in turn result in consolidation among infrastructure providers. Chinese providers will be the key cause and, according to Strand Consult, “2010 will be the year where we really see the Chinese enter the market - aggressive prices and especially cheap financing will put other providers under so much pressure that they will have difficulty responding...2010 will probably be the year where NSN, Ericsson and Alcatel will ask the EU and WTO to examine the Chinese phenomena.

We believe that the "old" infrastructure providers will view the financing packages that the Chinese are offering their customers as state support of a local industry fighting on the global market. The rhetoric we have seen in the airline industry, shipping industry and other business areas with large national interests will spread to the telco world and perhaps we will see something reminiscent of a small trade war.”

That, at last, is some strident comment from the forecasting lobby.

One last thought from Strand Consult: “In 2010, the press will continue to have a large role in how the telco industry perceives itself. A great deal of the communication in the press will derive from the USA and be written by American media, who most often do not have their finger on the pulse regarding the telco world outside the USA. The total USA market is still only 7% of the global mobile market...Many media in other countries choose to blindly quote what they see in English language media, resulting in the American media dominating during 2010 - a domination that is not justified by their work.

We can only recommend the media outside the USA enter into a dialogue with their local operators and learn more about how local customers are behaving. In our opinion there is an enormous difference between the mobile market in the USA and what Strand Consult is seeing in countries like Brazil, India, Kenya, China and large parts of Europe.”

Strand Consult, this editor is an Englishman based in Canada, with a publisher based in England. We are not American but we do pay attention to Brazil, India, Kenya, China and large parts of Europe. And many more places too.

Of the giants in emerging-market telecoms, India seems in less focused condition than China. If this reviewer hears another word about the delay in 3G auctioning, he is likely to be led off screaming: he cannot understand why a relatively minor dispute with the country’s military can not be determined once and for all by some binding legal judgement. And so, rather than give you a top ten graced with a saccharine-sweet coating of optimism, we wish you a Merry Christmas and a Happy Survival.

And if there is any good news, please tell us at Developing Telecoms.

More info:

• www.strandconsult.com

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