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If this year's FT World Telecoms Conference, organised by the Financial Times, is anything to go by it may just be that the investment community as well as some of the industry's biggest players are at last waking up to what Developing Telecoms has known for years: that the future of telecoms is in emerging markets.
The theme of this years conference, which is used by investors to monitor industry trends, was Emerging markets - The key to Growth and Survival. This is a first. Previously the event has focussed primarily on opportunities in developed markets. Over the years it has done a good job of persuading companies and investors alike that the seemingly unstoppable growth of mobile in developed countries during the past 10 years can be extended indefinitely through a combination of new applications and services such as Triple Play and IMS.
As the conference's introduction says "Slowing revenue growth and intense competition in core European and US markets is forcing increasing numbers of players in the global telecommunications industry to look to the world's emerging markets. By 2010 it is predicted that these markets will account for more than two-thirds of the world's telecom connections and almost 90% of all growth in the world's mobile sector".
Well where have you been guys? Yet amazingly, talking to delegates and sponsors there was still some surprise at this, despite a program loaded with contributions from emerging market players like VNSL, Turkcell, Etisalat and Orascom. Perhaps they missed the latest piece from Analysis Research showing that fixed line revenues will continue to decline at a rate of 4% per annum up to 2012 despite triple play? Maybe they also forgot about above 100% mobile penetration levels in some developed markets? Or the 5 billion people in emerging markets who are hungry to be digitally included.
Of course emerging markets bring a whole new raft of challenges and opportunities, such as how to deliver high quality and affordable services in low GDP markets. No one ever said it was going to be easy. But one of the most interesting points to come out of the discussion on operating strategies for emerging markets was that prices for network infrastructure equipment - the core enabling technology - are now increasing after years of decline. Link this to the huge increase in capability and services and you can see that the emerging markets are not only getting a good deal but also increasingly offer a good deal too.
With surveys showing that fewer than 30% of consumers in developed countries are willing to pay anything more for new services - and those that are willing to pay more are in all likelihood the ones who's bill is paid by their employer - the idiocy of ignoring emerging markets and failing to innovate and develop the kind of new business ideas that are necessary to address the digital divide is at last becoming crystal clear.
As the conference concludes "...emerging markets are... the key, not only to sustaining revenue growth, but also the key to survival". We couldn't agree more. Welcome aboard.
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